Friday, February 12, 2010

State Revenue (and Economy) Forecast Improves

Just released is the update for the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast:

The national and Washington economic recovery is progressing largely as we expected in November. As a result, our revision to the forecast for the current biennium is a relatively minor $31.5 million increase in the revenue forecast (excluding noneconomic changes). Output has now grown for two consecutive quarters including a 5.7% surge in the fourth quarter of 2009. As in November, we expect positive job growth for both the U.S. and Washington beginning in the current quarter. Though our baseline forecast expects the recovery to continue, significant risks remain. Consumer confidence remains low, credit remains tight, and the housing recovery may falter after the home buyers credit expires. We believe the Washington will outperform the U.S. economy in the recovery thanks to our export orientation and the relative stability of our key basic industries, aerospace and software. . .the forecast is up by $31.5 million. This is the first forecast to extend through the 2011-13 biennium. The General Fund-State forecast for the 2011-13 biennium is $32.2 billion.

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